The week of June 2–5 delivered a decisive macro shock. Friday’s May Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 172,000 – more than double the consensus of 85,000 – while April was revised up to 179,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% and annual wage growth moderated to 3.4%. The blowout print sent the US Dollar Index surging above 99.5, Treasury yields spiking, and risk assets broadly lower. Earlier in the week, ADP beat at +196,000, JOLTS surprised to the upside, and ISM Services printed 53.2 with Prices Paid firming. CME FedWatch now prices a ~60% probability of a 25bps Fed hike by December 2026 – the highest since March.
On the geopolitical front, Iran–US Hormuz diplomacy stalled: Tehran refused to confirm progress, Hezbollah rejected the US-mediated Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, and no MOU was signed. In crypto, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 32 Bitcoin for the first time in years – trivial in size but devastating in symbolism – triggering cascading long liquidations. Combined with a record 13-day spot Bitcoin ETF outflow streak ($4.4 billion), the crypto complex collapsed to multi-month lows.
Closing prices, Friday June 5, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1521 | Brent Crude – $93.09 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,365.30 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $69.10 | Bitcoin – $61,400 | Ethereum – $1,550
Key macro calendar, June 8–12: Monday: China trade balance. Tuesday: US NFIB; Eurozone Sentix. Wednesday: US CPI for May – the week’s defining event; Bank of Canada rate decision. Thursday: ECB rate decision (25bps hike to 2.40% fully priced); Lagarde press conference; US PPI. Friday: Germany final CPI; University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. FOMC blackout lifts this week ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC with a fresh dot plot.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD closed at 1.1521 (prev close May 29: 1.1660; 52-week range 1.1343–1.2079; daily rating: Strong Sell). The pair broke decisively below the 200-day SMA and 1.1580–1.1600 support cluster on the NFP shock, losing ~1.4% on the week. RSI has dropped to 35–38 – oversold on the daily, but the weekly chart retains room for further downside. ECB minutes had already shown policymakers debating an April hike, and markets fully price a 25bps ECB hike on June 12. Yet with the hike priced, the decisive unknown is now Wednesday’s US CPI.
Key catalysts: US CPI (Wed): consensus ~4.2% YoY after April’s 3.8% surprise. A beat above 4.5% is decisively dollar-bullish, targeting 1.1440; a miss below 4.0% opens a relief rally toward 1.1580–1.1620. ECB (Thu): hawkish guidance hinting at a further hike is euro-positive; a one-and-done signal extends losses. US PPI (Thu) and UoM Sentiment (Fri) are secondary.
Resistance: 1.1578/1.1600, 1.1640, 1.1680 │ Support: 1.1483/1.1497, 1.1440, 1.1405/1.1417
Baseline view: Bearish. The NFP-driven breakdown below 1.1580 keeps the April downtrend intact. Asymmetric risk is to the downside on any CPI beat. A soft CPI miss is the clearest euro-bull scenario. Base case: 1.1440–1.1600 range.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent settled at $93.09 (+2.2% on the week; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily signal: Sell). Brent rose despite risk-off as Iran–US diplomacy stalled completely: Tehran denied imminent progress, Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire, and no MOU was signed. EIA data confirmed six consecutive weeks of US crude inventory drawdowns. On the negative side, Chinese crude imports fell to 10-year lows, signalling a major demand-side headwind, and the NFP-driven repricing of global growth adds pressure. The 100-day SMA (~$98–$99) remains the overhead ceiling.
Key catalysts: Iran/Hormuz – the dominant binary: a ceasefire signal gaps Brent toward $88–$85; a Hormuz escalation re-targets $97–$100. China trade data (Mon). EIA inventories (Wed). US CPI (Wed): hot print signals tighter global demand; soft miss is mildly oil-supportive.
Resistance: $96.00, $98.00–$99.00 (100-day SMA), $100.00 │ Support: $90.00, $88.00, $85.00
Baseline view: Neutral, geopolitics-driven. Six straight inventory draws and the IEA’s ongoing supply-deficit assessment provide a floor around $88–$90. Chinese demand weakness and the growth repricing cap the upside. A weekend diplomatic breakthrough is the only event that sends Brent below $88. Base case: $89–$97, tied to MOU/Hormuz resolution.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold spot closed at $4,365.30 – its lowest close of 2026 – down ~4.9% on the week from $4,593.00 (52-week range $3,247.86–$5,595.46; daily rating: Strong Sell). The metal is ~22% below its January all-time high near $5,595 but remains +31% year-on-year. The selloff reflects the NFP-driven dollar surge, US 10-year yields near 4.60%, and partial deflation of the catastrophic Hormuz tail risk. Goldman Sachs ($5,400) and JPMorgan ($5,900) year-end targets remain intact, anchored by record central bank buying and de-dollarisation flows. Gold is now at a critical juncture: hold the $4,300–$4,370 zone or break toward $4,100.
Key catalysts: US CPI (Wed): above 4.5% cements the Fed hike narrative, targeting $4,200–$4,250; below 4.0% triggers a meaningful relief rally toward $4,480–$4,520, reopening the rate-cut argument. ECB hike (Thu) – hawkish guidance and EUR recovery produce a marginally softer dollar, helping gold stabilise. US PPI and UoM inflation expectations (Thu/Fri) are additive.
Resistance: $4,420, $4,480–$4,500, $4,550 │ Support: $4,300, $4,250, $4,100
Baseline view: Cautiously bearish short-term. Momentum is firmly negative, but deeply oversold daily conditions and the long-term structural bull case (central bank buying, de-dollarisation) limit downside. A soft CPI is the primary recovery catalyst. Base case: $4,250–$4,480. Long-term bull targets ($5,400–$5,900) remain valid.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver spot closed at $69.10 – its lowest since late March 2026 – down ~9.3% on the week from $76.17 (52-week range $31.64–$121.67; daily rating: Strong Sell). Silver was the hardest-hit precious metal, falling more than gold as both its drivers failed simultaneously: the precious-metal side buckled to dollar strength and Fed hawkishness; the industrial-metal side buckled to weak Chinese import data. The gold/silver ratio has widened to near 63. RSI is deeply oversold but momentum remains strongly negative, and the 20-day Bollinger SMA (~$77.50) is now far overhead resistance.
Key catalysts: China trade data (Mon) – the most powerful near-term positive: strong imports signal recovering industrial demand. US CPI (Wed): hot print keeps silver under pressure; soft miss targets $73–$75. ECB hike (Thu) – marginal positive via EUR recovery. UoM 5-year inflation expectations (Fri).
Resistance: $72.00, $74.00 (20-day EMA), $76.00 │ Support: $67.00, $65.00, $60.00
Baseline view: Bearish to neutral. Break below $73 then $70 opens the $65–$67 zone. Soft CPI is the clearest bounce catalyst, though every prior support is now resistance. Base case: $65–$73. Gold/silver ratio could compress sharply on any risk-on catalyst.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed at approximately $61,400 (intraday low $59,099 – its lowest since October 2024; −16% on the week from $73,565; 52-week range $60,187–$126,186). BTC is >51% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198. The selloff was multi-causal: Strategy sold 32 BTC – negligible but symbolically devastating – triggering cascading liquidations. The 13-day ETF outflow streak ($4.4B) was the longest since ETF launch. Friday’s NFP-driven Treasury yield spike amplified the pressure. The 200-day EMA (~$82,000) has capped every rally for six weeks. On the positive side, ETFs broke the streak with a $3M net inflow on Thursday, exchange reserves remain near 7-year lows, and the CLARITY Act (Senate Banking Committee 15–9 vote) remains a significant structural positive.
Key catalysts: Weekend Iran/Hormuz news – risk-on could trigger a sharp short-covering bounce. US CPI (Wed): soft reading reopens the rate-cut narrative – the most powerful macro positive for BTC, targeting $65,000–$68,000; hot print targets $57,000–$55,000. FOMC blackout lifts – Fed speakers could move markets. CLARITY Act – any further Congressional progress is asymmetrically positive.
Resistance: $63,000, $65,000, $68,000 │ Support: $59,000–$60,000 (critical floor / 52-week low zone), $55,000, $52,000
Baseline view: Cautiously bearish below $65,000. A soft CPI is the clearest catalyst for a meaningful recovery. A sustained close below $59,000 opens $55,000. Base case: $58,000–$65,000 range.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Ethereum closed at approximately $1,550 (−22.2% on the week from $1,992; 52-week range $1,388.12–$4,955.90; daily rating: Strong Sell). ETH underperformed Bitcoin sharply – a pattern that typically persists in risk-off as capital concentrates in the larger asset. Having broken $2,000 the prior week, ETH lost $1,800, $1,700, and $1,650 in rapid succession on Friday. ETH now sits just ~12% above its 52-week low of $1,388. Spot ETH ETFs logged 10+ consecutive days of outflows, losing $570M since May. The 50-day EMA (~$2,175) and 200-day MA (~$2,200) remain distant overhead resistance. Standard Chartered projects ETH at $4,000 end-2026. The CLARITY Act – which directly addresses ETH’s commodity vs. security classification – remains the most asymmetric positive catalyst.
Key catalysts: US CPI (Wed): miss below 4.0% targets $1,700–$1,800; beat above 4.5% puts the $1,388 52-week low in play. ECB hike (Thu) – mild positive via risk-on. CLARITY Act – any Senate/House vote is the most asymmetric ETH-specific catalyst.
Resistance: $1,650, $1,750, $1,850 │ Support: $1,500, $1,450, $1,388 (52-week low)
Baseline view: Bearish. Multiple key supports lost in rapid succession, structure severely damaged, ETH/BTC ratio deteriorating. Recovery above $1,850 requires soft CPI and constructive ECB. CLARITY Act is the most powerful standalone upside catalyst. Base case: $1,450–$1,700 range.
Conclusion
The week of June 8–12 is the most consequential macro week of 2026 so far, combining US CPI (Wednesday), the ECB rate decision (Thursday, 25bps hike to 2.40% fully priced), and US PPI (Thursday) – all just days before the FOMC meeting June 16–17 with a fresh dot plot. The FOMC blackout lifts this week, so Fed speakers may re-enter and amplify CPI and ECB reactions. The Iran/Hormuz binary remains the unscheduled wildcard: a weekend breakthrough would gap Brent toward $85–$88, relieve dollar pressure, and spark a risk-on bounce across every instrument.
Wednesday’s US CPI is the week’s defining catalyst. A print above 4.5% (hot): EUR/USD risks 1.1440, gold retests $4,200–$4,250, Bitcoin breaks $59,000, silver targets $65, ETH approaches its 52-week low. A print below 4.0% (soft): EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1580–1.1620, gold recovers $4,480–$4,520, Bitcoin targets $65,000–$68,000, silver attempts to reclaim $73–$75. The ECB hike on Thursday is priced – what matters is Lagarde’s guidance. Hawkish signal: euro-positive. Dovish one-and-done: EUR/USD extends lower regardless.
EUR/USD at 1.1521: bearish, targeting 1.1440 on hot CPI, 1.1580–1.1600 on soft. Brent at $93.09: $89–$97, geopolitics-driven. Gold at $4,365.30: hovers at critical support $4,300–$4,370. Silver at $69.10: deeply oversold, base case $65–$73. Bitcoin at $61,400: defends the $59,000–$60,000 floor. Ethereum at $1,550: CLARITY Act and soft CPI are the primary bull triggers.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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