The week of June 15–19 was dominated by Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% in a unanimous 12-0 vote on June 17, but the updated dot plot delivered a hawkish shock: the 2026 median flipped from one projected cut to a likely hike, with nine of 18 officials now seeing a hike by year-end. The US Dollar Index surged 1.06% to 100.68. Separately, the US–Iran memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and crashing oil prices – though Friday’s follow-on nuclear talks in Geneva were postponed after renewed Israel–Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon. The Bank of England held at 3.75% (7-2 vote); UK CPI held at 2.8%.
Closing prices, Friday June 19, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1469 | Brent Crude – $80.57 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,172.90 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $64.91 | Bitcoin – $63,300 | Ethereum – $1,710
Key macro calendar, June 22–26: Monday: China’s PBOC rate decision; Eurozone consumer confidence. Tuesday: flash PMIs (Japan, Eurozone, UK, US). Wednesday: Australian CPI. Thursday: US Core PCE Price Index, durable goods orders, final Q1 GDP. Friday: no major releases currently scheduled; markets will watch for any rescheduling of the postponed Geneva talks.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD closed at 1.1469 (prev. week close 1.1578; 52-week range 1.1343–1.2079; daily rating: Strong Sell). The pair fell to its lowest level since late March as the hawkish FOMC dot plot drove broad dollar strength, overwhelming what should have been euro-positive news from the Iran deal. ECB officials Wunsch and Lane both flagged scope for further hikes, but couldn’t match the Fed’s sharper pivot.
Tuesday’s flash PMIs and Thursday’s Core PCE and final Q1 GDP are the week’s key drivers. A hot PCE print would confirm the Fed’s hike signal and risk a break of the 52-week low; a cooler reading could spark a bounce toward 1.1550.
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1550, 1.1600 │ Support: 1.1420, 1.1390, 1.1343 (52-week low)
Baseline view: Bearish, dollar-driven. Thursday’s core PCE is the pivot. Base case: 1.1390–1.1550.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent closed at $80.57 (prev. week close $87.33; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily signal: Strong Sell). Brent fell roughly 8% on the week as the reopened Strait of Hormuz saw shipping traffic surge, erasing most of the war-premium gains built up since February. The slide eased late in the week after Friday’s Geneva talks were postponed.
The pace of Hormuz traffic normalization remains the key driver, alongside any rescheduling of the nuclear talks. A smooth resumption favors a slide toward $75–$76; a setback in Lebanon or the talks could spark a bounce to $85+.
Resistance: $83.00, $85.00, $88.00 │ Support: $78.00, $75.50, $72.00
Baseline view: Bearish on Hormuz momentum, but with two-sided geopolitical risk. Base case: $76–$85.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed at $4,172.90 (prev. week close $4,238.80; 52-week range $3,247.86–$5,595.46; daily rating: Strong Sell). Gold fell about 1.5% on the week as the hawkish Fed dot plot drove a broad dollar rally, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset and outweighing the inflation-easing benefit of cheaper oil.
Thursday’s Core PCE release is the key catalyst: a hot print risks a retest of $4,060–$4,100; a cooler reading allows a recovery toward $4,250–$4,300. Goldman Sachs ($5,400) and JPMorgan ($5,900) year-end targets remain officially intact.
Resistance: $4,250, $4,300, $4,400 │ Support: $4,100, $4,060, $4,000
Baseline view: Bearish near-term as the Fed’s hawkish pivot dominates. Base case: $4,060–$4,300.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver closed at $64.91 (prev. week close $67.97; 52-week range $35.28–$121.67; daily rating: Strong Sell). Silver fell roughly 4.5% on the week, extending its multi-week slide as the stronger dollar outweighed the disinflationary benefit of collapsing oil prices. The Gold/Silver ratio held near 64.
Thursday’s Core PCE is again the dominant catalyst: a hawkish confirmation risks a slide toward $61–$63, while a softer print could spark a bounce to $68–$69.
Resistance: $66.50, $69.00, $72.00 │ Support: $63.00, $61.50, $60.00
Baseline view: Bearish. Hot PCE plus a firm dollar points to $61–$63; a cool PCE print opens $68–$69. Base case: $62–$68.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed near $63,300 (prev. week close $63,500; 52-week range ~$60,000–$126,198; daily rating: Sell). Bitcoin traded a volatile $61,900–$64,400 range, ending roughly flat as the hawkish dot plot weighed on risk assets. US spot ETFs saw continued outflows, and the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 15 (Extreme Fear). The $60,000 floor held for a second week.
Thursday’s PCE/GDP data sets the tone into the weekend; a reversal in ETF flows would be a meaningful bullish tell.
Resistance: $65,000, $68,000, $70,000 │ Support: $62,000, $60,000 (critical floor), $57,000
Baseline view: Cautiously bearish, macro-dependent. CLARITY Act progress remains the key upside catalyst. Base case: $60,500–$66,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Ethereum closed near $1,710 (prev. week close $1,665; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily rating: Sell). ETH outperformed Bitcoin, gaining roughly 2.7% as it held near its 50- and 200-day moving averages, though spot ETH ETFs recorded fresh outflows.
The CLARITY Act, which would resolve ETH’s commodity-vs-security classification, remains its most asymmetric catalyst. A weekly close above $1,750 would suggest the recovery has legs; a break of $1,650 reopens the $1,500s.
Resistance: $1,750, $1,850, $2,000 │ Support: $1,650, $1,550, $1,388 (52-week low)
Baseline view: Cautiously neutral. CLARITY Act progress is the key upside driver. Base case: $1,580–$1,750.
Conclusion
The week of June 22–26 turns on Thursday’s US Core PCE Price Index, arriving one week after Warsh’s FOMC delivered a hawkish dot-plot surprise. Tuesday’s flash PMIs set the stage. The Iran/Hormuz situation adds a second layer: the Strait has reopened and oil has crashed, but the postponed Geneva talks leave the de-escalation’s durability in question.
EUR/USD at 1.1469: a hot PCE risks a break of 1.1343; a cool print reopens 1.1550+. Brent at $80.57: Hormuz momentum favors $76; a setback supports $85+. Gold at $4,172.90: base case $4,060–$4,300. Silver at $64.91: base case $62–$68. Bitcoin at $63,300: the $60,000 floor holds barring a hot PCE plus continued outflows. Ethereum at $1,710: the week’s relative outperformer; the CLARITY Act remains the key catalyst.
NordFX Analytical Group
*Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds*
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